4 year follow-up on buying pandemic stock dip + AI reallocation

This is my 4-year investment update following buying the dip on ‘pandemic stocks’ that declined (70%+) in 2022, then reallocating into AI stocks in 2023.

I started sharing public updates once a year. Data in this update is as of June 2026. This will be a relatively short update since my thesis is relatively unchanged.

See my past updates for more context:

Progress updates

Below is the performance summary since my last update, a year ago in June 2025. Previous realized returns are unchanged and documented in the earlier updates. The (*) indicates a short-term capital gain/loss (investment held for less than one year).

Realized (sold) in 2026

Apple (AAPL): +16.77% (*)
Microsoft (MSFT): +3.90% (*)
Netflix (NFLX): -7.39% (*)
Palantir (PLTR): -13.99% (*)
Shopify (SHOP): -21.10% (*)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): -26.35% (*)
Tesla (TSLA): +3.80% (*)

Weighted by cost basis, the combined realized return of -8.20%. These were the ones I had less confidence/conviction in.

Unrealized (current investments as of June 30)

The holdings below are estimated using the reported cost basis and June 30 closing prices. The (*) indicates a short-term capital gain/loss (investment held for less than one year).

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): +190.88% (*)
Alphabet/Google (GOOGL): +17.60%
Amazon (AMZN): +13.20% (*)
ARM (ARM): +208.19% (*)
ASML (ASML): +47.41% (*)
Broadcom (AVGO): +11.83% (*)
CoreWeave (CRWV): -23.53%
Intel (INTC): +206.24% (*)
IREN (IREN): +14.21% (*)
Meta (META): +443.46%
Micron (MU): +183.97% (*)
Nebius (NBIS): +154.87% (*)
Nvidia (NVDA): +315.36%
Oracle (ORCL): -8.88% (*)
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): +40.43% (*)

CoreWeave was the largest drag on the portfolio, and I sold most it in July and reallocated into memory (mostly SK Hynix). Those numbers will be in the next update.

Rate of return (IRR)

My annualized money-weighted return for this portfolio from June 2022 through June 2026 is approximately 52%.

That compares with 56% in last year’s update. Portfolio growth is net of deposits and withdrawals. The June 30 result is an estimate because I do not have a separate June month-end statement yet, but did my best to reconstruct it from statements, transactions and holdings.

Visualized

I used the performance/transaction to produce the visualization below.

Cumulative

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Portfolio growth is net of inflows/outflows. S&P is a price-return baseline.

Investment thesis

My investment thesis remains largely the same as it was in 2023. See a summary from this previous update. TL;DR:

“…AI is another secular trend like PCs (Windows, Mac), the internet (browsers, search, social) and mobile (iOS, Android, wearables). The difference is that new technology like AI can now spread faster than ever before and get used in new ways. Every new epoch uniquely benefits from the past, potentially bending the growth curve in new ways.

The other difference is that Nvidia has a monopoly position on the core technology driving this innovation. Therefore, the ~350% run up over the last 12 months doesn’t make Nvidia the stock of the last year, but rather it’s the stock of the next decade. The recent 3X gain will be a blip compared to what’s coming thanks to Nvidia’s CUDA (moat), among other things.”
1.5 year follow-up on buying the dip on pandemic stocks – Nov. 2023

Past thoughts on AI

Final thoughts

I continue to be in the ‘maybe I’m just lucky‘ phase, and the major drop in IRR from ~70% to 52% shows just how fragile it is, especially doing it part time.

All posts from this series: